**Lebanon Faces Dilemma Over Negotiations With Israel Amid Hezbollah Standoff**
*BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 7 (UPI)* — Lebanon is grappling with a critical decision: whether to proceed with negotiations with Israel aimed at ending the ongoing cycle of violence and preventing a full-scale war. This challenge is amplified by Hezbollah’s outright rejection of the talks, underscoring a profound political divide within the country.
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict, which reignited when the Iran-backed group opened a support front for Gaza on Oct. 8, 2023, remains unresolved—despite a cease-fire agreement reached on Nov. 27, 2024. Israel continues its aggressive operations against Hezbollah, resulting in further casualties and widespread destruction.
Israel has refused to withdraw from five strategic positions it still occupies in southern Lebanon. It has also withheld Lebanese prisoners detained during the war and prevented displaced residents from returning to their border villages, which were devastated in the fighting.
The Lebanese Army’s successful advance in southern Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah’s military presence along the border and south of the Litani River, as mandated by the cease-fire agreement, appears insufficient for Israel. The country demands Hezbollah’s complete disarmament.
Interestingly, Hezbollah—despite suffering heavy losses—has not retaliated against Israel’s ongoing air and drone strikes, which reportedly target the group’s remaining arms depots and military infrastructure beyond southern Lebanon. Yet, Hezbollah claims it has fully recovered, restructured its military capabilities, and rebuilt its command structure.
This recovery, coupled with Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm or back Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s new negotiation approach with Israel, places Lebanon at risk of renewed conflict.
President Aoun has stated that Lebanon has no choice but to engage in talks with Israel to end the occupation and halt attacks. However, Hezbollah rejects any attempts to involve Lebanon in new negotiations outside the established “mechanism” committee responsible for overseeing the cease-fire implementation. The group argues such talks would serve “the enemy and its interests.”
According to well-informed sources, indirect talks have yielded tangible results in the past—such as the 2022 U.S.-mediated maritime border deal that resolved a prolonged dispute over natural gas field ownership between Lebanon and Israel.
“Why not do that again?” questioned a former Lebanese Army general familiar with Hezbollah. He emphasized that for Lebanon to sit at the negotiation table, the U.S.—which is pressuring Lebanon to accept talks—must first ensure Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the release of prisoners, rather than “cornering” Lebanon.
Lebanon’s main demand is for Israel to honor the truce accord through the “mechanism” committee, comprising Israel, Lebanon, the United States, France, and the United Nations. The newly proposed negotiations, whose framework remains unclear, would extend beyond cease-fire supervision to address land border disputes and other contentious issues.
Middle East security analyst Riad Kahwaji explained, “There is a need for an agreement on the disputed points along the border, and this is not within the mandate of the mechanism.” The committee’s official remit includes ensuring Hezbollah’s disarmament, the release of prisoners, and Israel’s withdrawal behind the U.N.-drawn Blue Line that existed before the October 2023 war.
If the new negotiations proceed and finalize a land border agreement, the de facto state of war between Lebanon and Israel would end, reinstating the 1949 Armistice.
“But Hezbollah does not want an end to the state of war between Lebanon and Israel,” Kahwaji added. “That would require it to disarm, causing it to lose its value to Iran and its influence within its popular base. Its resistance would no longer be needed or relevant.”
Yet, Hezbollah’s ability to rearm is severely constrained. The group lost its main supply route following the overthrow of its key ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, as well as longstanding access to Beirut’s port and airport—critical channels used for smuggling weapons and funds for years.
Now, smuggling large weapons such as heavy missiles across the Syrian border is nearly impossible, although Hezbollah may still attempt to acquire smaller arms like Grad rockets, Kornet anti-tank missiles, and drones.
“If Hezbollah goes into another war with Israel, it will be using what remains of its arsenal—and that’s not much,” noted Kahwaji. He pointed out the group faces a “different leadership,” having lost most of its top commanders to Israeli strikes, and an exhausted popular base. “The repercussions would be huge.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived as acting “like a victor,” refusing concessions and imposing strict conditions.
Meanwhile, Lebanon is under mounting pressure, especially from the United States and Israel, to forcibly disarm Hezbollah. Lebanese authorities prefer a cautious approach to avoid confrontation between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah, fearing such clashes could fracture the army and potentially trigger another civil war.
The former Army general advocated for Washington to recognize and support Lebanon’s strategy, emphasizing Hezbollah’s readiness to hand over weapons if Israel halts attacks and withdraws as per the truce accord.
“Hezbollah is prepared to relinquish offensive weapons first, followed by defensive weapons at a later stage, as part of a national defense strategy,” he said. “This is now an attrition warfare—not a two-party conflict—but one led solely by Israel.”
Iran, Hezbollah’s long-time funder and arms supplier since the early 1980s, no longer micromanages the group’s day-to-day affairs but remains intent on preserving Hezbollah as a political and military entity—a strategic asset—after “losing all its other cards in the region,” according to local experts.
With Israel threatening to escalate attacks and potentially launch a full-scale war to enforce Hezbollah’s complete disarmament, Lebanon faces limited options: pursuing diplomacy and applying political pressure.
“It is in Lebanon’s best interest to seize this opportunity and bring Israel to the negotiation table to end the war and the ongoing conflict,” Kahwaji concluded.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/11/07/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-negotiations/7091762544210/