Since the end of 2024, market experts have predicted the arrival of a massive altcoin season. As 2025 nears its end, however, these predictions have yet to materialize. In fact, it appears that there may be no altseason at all this cycle, as most altcoins have performed poorly during this bull run.
According to a tweet from crypto investor and trader Daan, only 29% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) this year. While traders remain hopeful, the chances of an altseason have diminished significantly, especially considering that this bull cycle is in its later stages, following the typical four-year cycle pattern.
### Are Altcoins Doomed?
In previous cycles, altcoins tended to perform better when BTC’s dominance weakened. This was because liquidity rotated from Bitcoin to other projects, sparking the theory that Bitcoin needs to consolidate and lose dominance for altcoins to thrive. However, this cycle has largely defied that pattern.
With the exception of a few tokens, the altcoin sector has mirrored Bitcoin’s price movements, rising and falling alongside the king cryptocurrency. In some cases, altcoins have even underperformed during corrections, dropping twice as sharply as BTC.
Investors now view Bitcoin as the benchmark asset, often rotating their capital to altcoins for brief periods before returning to BTC. Over the past six months, the percentage of the top 50 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin has remained capped at around 39%. Altcoins currently experience short-lived rallies lasting two to three months at most, and more recent price spikes have typically lasted just two to three weeks.
### A Different Bull Run
This cycle contrasts sharply with the previous bull run when altcoins experienced a massive, sustained rally. Daan pointed out that the last significant period of altcoin outperformance occurred during the COVID era of 2020-2021.
Today, analysts frequently describe most altcoins as “bounce-to-sell” assets, seeing short rallies followed by quick sell-offs. The tokens that have managed to sustain rallies tend to be those backed by strong project fundamentals and active communities.
Interestingly, some analysts predicted this trend early in 2025. Ki Young Ju, founder of the market research firm CryptoQuant, shared his outlook during the December rally. He asserted that altseason would not unfold as expected this time. Ju emphasized that most altcoins would no longer be driven solely by Bitcoin’s price movements but would instead need to develop independent ecosystems to grow sustainably.
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