After a rough, record-setting flu season, doctors and health officials are bracing for another wave of fever, misery, and respiratory distress.
In the U.K., health officials are warning about an early rise in flu levels among children and young adults. Meanwhile, in Japan, officials recently declared a flu epidemic and closed schools after experiencing an unusually high number of flu cases early in the season.
**What Does This Mean for the U.S.?**
Typically, flu cases in the U.S. start to rise in November, along with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and enteroviruses, and peak in February. However, experts worry that job-cut chaos at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the government shutdown could make it difficult to track how the virus is spreading this fall.
The CDC’s last influenza report for the U.S. was for the week ending September 20, when there was minimal activity. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, expressed concern about the possibility of limited flu surveillance by the CDC, which could leave the U.S. blind to the scale and scope of flu outbreaks.
“Everything from outreach campaigns to more logistical efforts to actually get vaccines out could be affected,” Rasmussen said. “That information just may not be available, so it will be very difficult to coordinate a national response.”
**A Harsh Flu Season Last Year**
Last year’s flu season was severe. There were about 1.1 million hospitalizations associated with the flu, the highest rate in 14 years, according to the CDC. Additionally, doctor visits for flu-like illnesses reached the highest numbers in over a decade.
An estimated 38,000 to 99,000 deaths were associated with the 2024-2025 flu season, based on a preliminary assessment by the CDC. For children, it was one of the deadliest years on record, with 280 children dying from the flu. Alarmingly, at least three of those deaths occurred in June and July — far outside the typical flu season.
**How Bad Will the Flu Be This Year?**
Flu is notoriously hard to predict, and this year things are already looking a little different. The CDC predicted at the end of August that this flu season will be more moderate than last year’s. However, some age groups could still be hit hard, especially if people don’t get their flu shots.
The main strains currently circulating are similar to those that caused severe outbreaks last season: H1N1 and H3N2 for flu A, as well as flu B.
“It’s a little early to know which strains will predominate this year for flu season, but certainly there is risk that similar very virulent strains could circulate again this year,” said Dr. George Diaz, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and chief of medicine at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington.
“This prediction for a moderate season could be off, and it could be another severe flu season,” he added. “We’re still very early in the flu season in North America, and it’s a little hard to know with certainty.”
Even if someone got the flu last year, they may still be vulnerable to the new version because immunity wanes over time, especially in older people and the immunocompromised.
**When Is the Best Time to Get the Flu Shot?**
The flu strain is only one factor in how severe the season could be. Vaccine hesitancy and a weakened public health infrastructure in the U.S. could also contribute to flu spread.
“It’s going to be largely driven more by social and policy changes than it is going to be driven by virologically related ones,” Rasmussen noted.
Last flu season, fewer than half of children were vaccinated against the flu, a decline of over 20 percentage points from the 2019-2020 season. This year, that trend is expected to continue, Rasmussen said.
Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said it’s difficult to know how severe this year’s flu season will be in the U.S., but that it’s very unusual to have “two ultra-severe seasons back to back.”
So, even though the virus hasn’t changed much, getting vaccinated remains the best way to protect against the worst of the season.
“October is the ideal time to get vaccinated,” he said. “That ought to provide quite reasonable protection throughout what we consider the influenza season, through February and into March.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/flu-season-us-vaccine-2025-cdc-influenza-shot-what-know-rcna238255