The final main slate of the NFL season always reminds me of the Upside Down from *Stranger Things*. Only instead of a toxic, parallel dimension overrun with vines and murderous creatures, we get extreme unpredictability with the potential for even more variance than usual.
There are teams with playoff spots locked up who plan to rest key starters. Throw in a confusing mix of “incentive chasing” and “tanking,” and it usually means huge stars can become busts while backups suddenly become vital. This all makes standard projections based on typical season performance useless, as they struggle to keep up with the flood of news unleashed toward the end of the week.
This is where an advantage develops—because the field usually expresses significant certainty in places where it simply doesn’t exist. This week’s example is Jaydon Blue starting at running back for the Dallas Cowboys. Blue could get the lion’s share of work against the Giants, but he has zero explosive runs in 22 carries this season, and it felt like the Cowboys have gone out of their way to keep him off the field. Phil Mafah could end up being just as involved as Blue on Sunday.
One place I agree with the field this week is that the Jacksonville Jaguars could be the key to unlocking the slate. The Jaguars have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, and more importantly, they still haven’t locked up the division. This means they have a must-win game against a very beatable Titans secondary.
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### The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist. On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR scoring with bonuses awarded if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, or 100 receiving yards.
Below is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. While this lineup is designed for that contest, it can be utilized as a foundation for other games and platforms as well.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings, with a $50,000 budget.
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### Year-To-Date Results
| Week | Points |
|——–|———|
| Week 1 | 95.52 |
| Week 2 | 124.90 |
| Week 3 | 181.44 |
| Week 4 | 142.88 |
| Week 5 | 162.24 |
| Week 6 | 117.24 |
| Week 7 | 116.46 |
| Week 8 | 158.26 |
| Week 9 | 146.94 |
| Week 10| 114.44 |
| Week 11| 118.68 |
| Week 12| 147.58 |
| Week 13| 119.72 |
| Week 14| 137.12 |
| Week 15| 124.50 |
| Week 16| 114.90 |
| Week 17| 118.00 |
The optimal lineup has netted around $120 this season, so I’m in the red $205 with an average score of 131.81 points through 17 weeks.
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### Week 18 Lineup
**QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($6,400)**
Jacksonville could theoretically finish as high as the No. 1 seed or as low as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. I’m expecting Lawrence’s best, which has actually been great over the last six weeks.
**RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($8,000)**
Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are the highest-priced running backs on the main slate, but Gibbs is expected to have far lower ownership. Even Jaydon Blue is projected to be utilized at a higher rate.
**RB: Jordan Mason, Vikings ($5,200)**
With Aaron Jones out, Mason should take on a bell-cow role. He’s had at least 16 carries in six career games and produced at least 100 rushing yards in four of them.
**WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($5,300)**
Thomas has been the most volatile Jacksonville receiver, but he also has the most upside this week. According to FantasyPros, the Titans have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, and the seventh-most receiving yards per game since Week 13.
**WR: Luther Burden III, Bears ($5,300)**
The Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and Burden looks like the top receiver in Chicago’s newly explosive offense. I expect this to be one of the more exciting and competitive games to watch this week.
**WR: Parker Washington, Jaguars ($5,100)**
Washington has finished as the weekly WR3 and WR9 the last two weeks with a 27.4% target share. The Titans have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 13. By stacking Thomas and Washington with Lawrence, we’re differentiating from the field, who are projected to roster Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange at very high rates.
**TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals ($7,500)**
Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, and McBride can extend his NFL record for receptions by a tight end, while also chasing Travis Kelce’s receiving yards record (1,416). He needs 243 yards, so I’m saying there’s a chance.
**FLEX: Jaylen Wright, Dolphins ($4,200)**
De’Von Achane is listed as doubtful, which should open up more opportunities for Wright (and potentially rookie Ollie Gordon). I prefer Wright, as he’s been the more explosive option this season. According to FantasyPros, the Patriots have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, and the highest yards before contact per attempt since Week 13.
**DST: Minnesota Vikings ($3,000)**
The Vikings have been the best defense in the league over the last month and are at home against a “resting” Packers team with Clayton Tune under center.
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This lineup is designed to capitalize on key matchups and exploit the uncertainty that defines the final weeks of the NFL season. Good luck this week!
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/01/03/nfl-dfs-week-18-optimal-lineup-trust-jaguars-stack-led-by-trevor-lawrence-in-must-win-game/