With just three days to go until Election Day, the New Jersey gubernatorial contest between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has emerged as one of the nation’s closest races.
Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor who has represented New Jersey in Congress since 2019, is running on a message of pragmatic leadership and “ruthless competence.” She draws support from suburban moderates, veterans, and swing voters wary of extremism.
Ciattarelli, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has positioned himself as the candidate of economic frustration and cultural backlash. He is seeking to expand on Trump’s gains in the state.
New Jersey is one of only two states holding a gubernatorial election this year, making it a key focus for national operatives in both parties. Ciattarelli, who lost narrowly in 2021, is attempting to break a Democratic winning streak and return the governor’s office to Republican hands for the first time in over a decade. For Democrats, a win would keep the state blue.
As of Thursday, Sherrill enjoys a lead averaging 48 percent—2.7 points ahead of Ciattarelli’s 45.3 percent, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics. Newsweek has analyzed six of the latest polls contributing to this average.
### Sherrill’s Narrow Lead Holds
A new poll from The Hill/Emerson conducted October 25–28 shows Sherrill with 50 percent support in the New Jersey governor’s race, holding a narrow 2-point lead over Ciattarelli, who polls at 48 percent.
Other recent surveys reveal similarly tight margins:
– Suffolk University: Sherrill ahead by 4 points (46% to 42%)
– Quantus Insights: Sherrill with a 3-point advantage (49% to 46%)
– Co/efficient: Democrat up by just a single point (48% to 47%)
Earlier polls from Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage and others also indicate a close race.
### Gender Divide Shapes the Race
In the final days of New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest, Mikie Sherrill’s path to victory appears increasingly reliant on a sharp gender divide and continued support from voters dissatisfied with the current administration.
A recent Hill/Emerson College poll shows Sherrill leading among women by 18 points, while Jack Ciattarelli holds a 16-point advantage among men—a widening gender gap that has grown since last month.
Overall, Sherrill leads 49 to 48 percent among likely voters; with undecided voters allocated, she inches up to 50 percent.
Both candidates are equally polarizing. Forty-seven percent of voters view Sherrill favorably, while 47 percent view her unfavorably. Ciattarelli registers similarly, with 48 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable ratings.
While outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy remains underwater with just 34 percent approval, Sherrill commands near-total loyalty among his backers—97 percent say they plan to vote for her. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has locked in 91 percent of those who disapprove of Murphy.
### The Economy and Voter Concerns
The economy dominates as the top concern for 52 percent of voters, far ahead of issues like threats to democracy or housing affordability.
Sherrill’s coalition depends on both gender dynamics and her ability to hold the middle ground in a race defined by tight margins.
### What Happens Next
New Jersey voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, November 4, to decide the next governor in what promises to be one of the most closely watched elections of the year.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-is-winning-new-jersey-election-what-polls-show-3-days-out-10967611