Short-term Bitcoin holders have recently transferred approximately 29,400 BTC to exchanges at a loss, intensifying concerns about potential downward pressure in the cryptocurrency market. This sell-off has coincided with substantial distribution from long-term holders as well. Over the past month, these seasoned investors have offloaded around 815,000 BTC—marking the highest distribution level since January 2024 and adding further complexity to current market dynamics.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $96,627, reflecting a 6.11% decline in the last 24 hours. However, contrary to alarming narratives suggesting coordinated dumping, the data indicate that this represents standard bull-market behavior. On-chain metrics reveal that long-term holders have consistently realized profits throughout this cycle, with activity mirroring patterns observed in previous bull runs. By late August, profit-taking had reached levels comparable to prior cycle peaks.
Whale wallets aged seven years or older have exhibited noteworthy spending patterns. These large addresses—which process more than 1,000 BTC per hour—tend to exhibit regular and evenly spaced transactions. This frequency suggests a persistent, staggered distribution rather than panic selling.
On November 7th, Bitcoin holders realized net profits of $3.0 billion. This aligns with profit levels observed in October, indicating continued resilience and strength among holders. Notably, net realized losses remain virtually nonexistent, underscoring that holders have yet to capitulate.
**Critical Support Levels and Market Structure**
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted the importance of investors who bought Bitcoin six to twelve months ago, noting their cost basis is near $94,000. According to Ju, a bear cycle cannot be confirmed unless Bitcoin dips below this crucial level. He advocates for patience and warns against drawing premature conclusions.
Alex Adler identified two important correction levels: $87,000 and $74,000. The $87,000 level is derived from a conservative valuation model that explains 87% of price variation through on-chain activity, boasting a strong backtest score of 95 out of 100. Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average could trigger a deeper correction, with CryptoQuant’s research suggesting that such a scenario would accelerate downward momentum and test lower support zones.
Adding further perspective, Hunter Horsley from Bitwise argued that the traditional four-year market cycle is becoming obsolete. He points out that the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the emergence of new market participants, along with changes in government administration, have transformed the market structure and dynamics.
**Conclusion**
While short-term volatility and increased selling pressure may raise concerns, on-chain metrics and expert analyses indicate that current market activity largely reflects historical bull-market trends. Critical support levels and evolving market structures will be key factors to watch as Bitcoin navigates this phase.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/short-term-bitcoin-holders-exit-as-long-term-distribution-continues/