A distinct shift in Ethereum’s spot order activity suggests large investors are accumulating the asset at discounted prices, reflecting behavioral changes that have historically signaled potential trend reversals.
So-called whales, holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, have increased their balances by 7.6 million tokens since late April—a 52% increase. At the same time, retail wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH have sold off, reducing their holdings by 16%, according to CryptoQuant data.
The metric measuring higher-than-average spot volumes for executed trades was observed multiple times after Ethereum dropped to $3,000 in early November. This pattern often marks “the start of trend reversals or late-stage compression phases before major upswings,” according to CryptoQuant verified analyst ShayanMarkets.
### A Second Wind for Ethereum?
“The likelihood of whale accumulation forming a local bottom remains high,” Shawn Young, chief analyst of MEXC Research, told Decrypt. “This cycle looks similar to previous bottoms, marked by large wallets absorbing sell-side liquidity from short-term holders.”
Young also pointed to the stability of the ETH/BTC ratio at multi-month lows as a sign of relative strength. This view is further supported by a 25% uplift in daily Ethereum transactions from September levels and by the normalization of staked Ethereum discount following the $19 billion market wipeout on October 10.
### Broader Market Dynamics
This accumulation trend is not confined to Ethereum. It reflects a recent shift in broader market dynamics driven by an improving macroeconomic outlook, including the possibility of an end to one of the U.S.’s longest-running government shutdowns.
“Whale accumulation makes sense, and we see the same for Bitcoin as well, with new participants coming in to absorb sell pressure from OGs that believe in a four-year cycle,” Lai Yuen, investment analyst at Fisher8 Capital, told Decrypt. “If macro conditions continue to hold up well, chances of this becoming a local bottom are high for Ethereum at $3,200 and Bitcoin at $98,000.”
Yuen also highlighted ongoing excitement from traditional finance about asset tokenization. A supportive regulatory backdrop could provide a further catalyst. A formal crypto market structure bill could help lift Ethereum prices, as greater clarity permeates the market, potentially ending a regulatory overhang that may be sidelining investors. However, the government shutdown would need to end soon if bipartisan talks are to resume this year, Decrypt previously reported.
### The Fusaka Upgrade
The institutional re-entry narrative is also being fueled by the Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for mainnet activation on December 3. This highly anticipated update is poised to boost Ethereum’s scalability and reduce transaction costs by adding dedicated data lanes for rollups, allowing Layer 2 protocols to scale and freeing up the main chain.
“This is a significant update because what’s next for Ethereum adoption is coming from real-world applications and DeFi protocols, all of which would depend on cheaper, faster transactions,” MEXC’s Young explained.
Additionally, the upgrade will introduce Peer Data Availability Sampling, enabling nodes to share smaller data pieces rather than whole blocks, reducing bandwidth and hardware requirements. Reduced node requirements could allow more participants in network validation, theoretically increasing decentralization and security.
Despite these improvements, Yuen highlighted a potential trade-off. With the introduction of blob lanes and improved blob fees, it will become cheaper for Layer 2 protocols to build on Ethereum. While this is positive for scalability, it could “lead to a decline in fees, thus reducing Ethereum burn.”
### Looking Ahead
Still, if current accumulation behaviors persist and the $3,000 to $3,400 region holds as support, analysts expect Ethereum to enter a consolidation phase that could pave the way for further upside.
Ethereum is down 1.6% over the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $3,560, according to CoinGecko data.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/ethereum/ethereum-spot-order-activity-hints-at-institutional-re-entry-analysts-claim/