**Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin Cycle Peak in Late 2025, Warning of 2026 Market Correction**
Crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen forecasts that Bitcoin could reach its next major cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2025 before entering a downturn in 2026. He cautions investors to be mindful of past market cycles, which often display a pattern of midterm-year declines.
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### Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Patterns
In an interview on Altcoin Daily, Cowen explained that Bitcoin’s performance over the last decade has followed a relatively consistent cycle. Major peaks have historically occurred in the fourth quarter following a U.S. presidential election year—in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
“Based on historical patterns, late 2025 aligns with the next likely top,” Cowen said. “The year that follows, typically the midterm year, often brings a period of market reset.”
He referenced 2014, 2018, and 2022 as examples of these post-peak declines, noting that Bitcoin sharply fell from its highs before entering new accumulation phases.
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### Market Indicators Support the Outlook
Cowen highlighted several technical indicators supporting his projection. The Bitcoin dominance index recently climbed to around 66%, signaling that Bitcoin continues to outperform most alternative cryptocurrencies.
“Bitcoin dominance rising is usually a sign that the broader crypto market is not in full risk-on mode,” he explained. “It means capital is consolidating in the most established asset.”
Additionally, the 50-week moving average, currently near $100,000, acts as a critical support level. As long as Bitcoin holds above this threshold, upward momentum may continue. Conversely, a sustained break below it could indicate that the market has peaked.
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### Retail Interest Remains Muted
Despite Bitcoin nearing its all-time highs, Cowen observed that retail participation in the crypto market remains low. Indicators such as search data and social media activity around cryptocurrencies have dropped sharply since 2021, suggesting limited retail enthusiasm.
“This is one of the quietest markets we’ve seen near the top,” he commented. “It’s unusual, but it fits with the broader idea that diminishing returns and slower cycles are defining this era.”
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### Outlook for Ethereum and Solana
Cowen expects Ethereum to experience another rally before the end of the current cycle, with prices potentially reaching between $5,000 and $7,000. However, he warned that Ethereum could face a significant decline in 2026 alongside broader market weakness.
He also drew comparisons between Solana and Ethereum’s earlier market behavior, noting that Solana may continue to rise for several additional months before undergoing a similar correction.
“It’s moving like a delayed version of Ethereum’s last cycle,” Cowen remarked.
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### Broader Economic Factors
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will play a crucial role in shaping the next phase of the crypto market, according to Cowen. High interest rates and constrained liquidity may challenge speculative assets like cryptocurrencies in maintaining long-term gains.
He noted that a more accommodative Fed stance post-2026 could pave the way for another wave of market growth. For the time being, Cowen urges investors to remain cautious.
“The fundamentals are improving, but history shows that price doesn’t always move in sync with fundamentals,” he said.
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### Long-Term Perspective
While Cowen’s short-term outlook remains cautious, his long-term view of Bitcoin is optimistic. He believes the asset could reach $1 million by 2041 if historical growth trends persist.
He closed his analysis with a reminder to investors:
“Every cycle has its rhythm. The key is to recognize it before the market turns.”
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*Stay tuned for more insights as the crypto market evolves.*
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/benjamin-cowen-predicts-bitcoins-next-major-peak-in-late-2025-followed-by-2026-downturn/