Bitcoin has entered its historically most significant month for gains—November—with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013. This means Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 this month if history repeats itself. However, several macroeconomic factors are also influencing the market.
“I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.
Looking ahead, there is an expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will further lower interest rates, and that the US and China are working on a trade deal. Both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, ongoing issues such as the US government shutdown and tariffs continue to add economic uncertainty.
Here’s a breakdown of some key developments to keep your eye on in the weeks ahead:
### US-China Easing Trade Tensions
A recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was seen as a positive step toward easing trade tensions between the two countries. Trump described the talks in South Korea as “amazing.”
Part of the discussion included an agreement from Trump to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean purchases, and ending restrictions on rare earth exports for a year. Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “pretty soon.”
Trump’s threat of tariffs against China was blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated within just 24 hours on October 11. Since then, the crypto market has struggled to recover.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow in its China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” in the trade war rather than its end.
### US Fed to Cut Rates and End Quantitative Tightening
Only days ago, Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025.
Data from CME’s FedWatch—a tool used to measure expectations for Fed rate changes—shows traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a further rate cut. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets by stating the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
Fed rate cuts are generally seen as bullish for Bitcoin, as lower borrowing costs historically encourage investors to trade riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this positive outlook, the Federal Reserve recently decided to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1. QT is the process of contracting the central bank’s balance sheet, aimed at cooling an overheating economy and preventing inflation from rising too quickly.
The opposite process, quantitative easing (QE), involves injecting more cash into the economy, which often benefits crypto markets as some of that money flows into alternative assets.
### US Government Shutdown Stretches On
The US government shutdown is approaching its fifth week, nearing the longest in US history. Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the government spending plan.
On Thursday, President Trump called on Republicans to abolish the “Senate filibuster” rule—a procedure allowing a small group of senators to block action by the majority—which he blames for the shutdown.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR: INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Ending the shutdown is considered a critical step for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to give the final green light to several crypto ETFs. It is also essential for advancing the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to provide clearer regulations for the industry.
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As November unfolds, keep an eye on these key developments. While Bitcoin’s historical seasonal performance is promising, the broader economic context will also play a crucial role in shaping the market’s direction.
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